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Static List of Impacts

AFGHANISTAN

  • Drought increases reliance on opium poppy crop. Illicit funds support terrorism and anti-regime forces.
  • Drought fuels conflict between warlords over water supplies. Central government unable to dampen disputes.

    • ALAND ISLANDS

    ALBANIA

  • Reduced water supply in Western Albania as a result of weaker stream flow causes riots.

    • ALGERIA

  • Islamic militants adapt to agricultural declines by providing free public services. They gain sufficient public support to reinvigorate revolutionary movement.

    • ANDORRA

    ANGOLA

    ANGUILLA

    ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

    ARGENTINA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause migration from Buenos Aires Province. Competition over other territories causes vicious internal disputes.

    • ARMENIA

    ARUBA

    AUSTRALIA

  • Internal migration to a Northwest with relatively greater water supply causes domestic controversy. Many citizens oppose government land deals and distribution policies.

    • AUSTRIA

    AZERBAIJAN

    BAHAMAS

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow away from the coast and off the islands altogether. Significant damage to tourism due to beach erosion.

    • BAHRAIN

    BANGLADESH

  • Flooding causes massive refugee flow toward India. Implications of irreversable damage destabilize government with public blame for inadequate response and insufficient investment in dykes.

    • BARBADOS

    BELARUS

    BELGIUM

    BELIZE

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow. Significant damage to tourism and fishing.

    • BENIN

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • BERMUDA

    BHUTAN

  • Lower agricultural yields fuel push for land reform. Maoist insurgency increasingly develops by adopting this rhetoric.

    • BOLIVIA

  • Flooding and landslides in Bolivia cause internal migration.
  • Glacial melt causes water shortages in Bolivia and generates riots.

    • BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

    BOTSWANA

    BRAZIL

  • Huge reductions in land suitable for coffee in Brazil cause economic dislocations and protests.
  • Perception that the Brazilian central government is failing to address epidemic of the parasitic disease visceral leishmaniasis in the Northeast fuels tension between regions.
  • Unusual drought in Amazon triggers massive fires. Indigenous refugees and international outcry create chaotic siutation.
  • Continued and increasing subsidies to drought-ridden Northeast Brazil triggers secession movement by some Southern states.
  • Massive species die-off in the rainforest results in radical, anti-development movement, which launches terrorist attacks against farms and government agricultural complexes.

    • BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

    BULGARIA

    BURKINA FASO

    BURUNDI

  • Persistent drought exacerbates tensions between Hutus and Tutsis, reigniting ethnic violence.

    • CAMBODIA

  • Massive floods cause over a million refugees to flee. International community deploys large amount of aid.

    • CAMEROON

  • Desertification triggers wide scale ethnic conflict between Kotokos and Choa Arabs.

    • CANADA

    CAPE VERDE

    CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

    CHAD

  • Persistent drought triggers fighting between Toroboro farmers and Arab herders.

    • CHILE

    CHINA

  • Drought in Xinjiang stirs Uyghurs opposition to Han Chinese influx. Eventually triggers armed conflict.
  • Water shortages, blamed on Chinese diversion, cause India to provide arms and support to a new Tibetan insurgent movement.
  • Water shortages in Beijing spark anti-regime protests and create major political challenge for ruling Communist party.
  • Failure to resolve local water disputes causes groups of farmers to act independently. Increased local assertions result in periodic violence against central government authorities.
  • Persistent failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions levels feeds international frustration with China. Western tariffs and sanctions stress the Chinese economy and generate movement toward the formation of competing regional economic blocs.
  • Sea level rise and flooding threaten large coastal cities including Shanghai. Substantial refugee flows occur under government-managed resettlement policies.

    • COLOMBIA

  • Glacier retreat affects hydroelectric generation in Colombia, triggering persistent blackouts and looting.
  • Malaria fuels poverty and civil conflict.

    • COMOROS

    REPUBLIC OF CONGO

    DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

    COSTA RICA

  • Water shortages on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica trigger unrest.

    • COTE DIVOIRE

  • Poor cotton yields due to drought in the North fuel Muslim opposition movements, generating violence and a harsh government response.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • CROATIA

    CUBA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • CYPRUS

  • Beach erosion from flooding devastates tourist trade and triggers political unrest over perceived governmental failures.

    • CZECH REPUBLIC

    DENMARK

    DJIBOUTI

  • Drought fuels conflict between Afars and Issas. Cattle raiding practices increase in country.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • DOMINICA

    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

    ECUADOR

  • Flooding causes substantial damage to Guayaquil City. Massive internal refugee flow results.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • EGYPT

  • Flooding in coastal region causes mass migration. In Cairo, refugees from the Alexandria Governorate protest lack of government assistance.

    • EL SALVADOR

  • Flooding in El Salvador along Lempa River causes large migration. Public angry at government over perceived failure of reconstruction projects.

    • EQUATORIAL GUINEA

    ERITREA

    ESTONIA

    ETHIOPIA

    FAEROE ISLANDS

    FALKLAND ISLANDS

    FIJI

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause internal refugee flow.

    • FINLAND

    FRANCE

  • Massive heat wave and drought force shutdown of many nuclear reactors due to cooling difficulties. Blackouts generate unrest and uncertainty.
  • A substantial number of farmers respond to changing climatic condition by embracing bioengineered crops. Anti-biotech movement holds widescale protests and launches attacks against government organs seen as faciliating their use.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow from the Marseille area.

    • FRENCH GUIANA

  • Increasing malaria rates in French Guiana hurt tourism. Public rages against French policies and lack of support.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GABON

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GAMBIA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GEORGIA

    GERMANY

    GHANA

  • Water shortages trigger conflict between Dagomba and nomadic Kokomba in northern Ghana.
  • Drought worsens agricultural yields and limits effectiveness of Akosombo Dam. Popular unrest over electricity shortages and perceived government planning failures.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GREAT BRITAIN

    GREECE

  • Water shortages, beach erosion, and excessive heat reduce tourism--generating political unrest and riots over accusations of poor government management.

    • GREENLAND

    GRENADA

    GUADELOUPE

    GUATEMALA

  • Severe food shortages result in reemergence of aggressive leftist opposition to government. Food protests erupt.

    • GUINEA

  • Flooding destroys rice crop and triggers food riots in Conakry.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GUINEA-BISSAU

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • GUYANA

  • Repeated flooding generates internal refugee flow and accusations of neglected infastructure due to racism. Tensions spark riots and violence between Afro-Guyanese and East Indians.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • HAITI

    HONDURAS

    HONG KONG

    HUNGARY

    ICELAND

    INDIA

  • Drought in state of Orissa causes clashes between citizens and government. People often blame liberalized agricultural policies.
  • Persistent flooding and natural disasters in Kerala, without substantial central government support, leads to Communist-inspired independence movement. Central government crackdown leads to sporodic violence.
  • Widespread protests over water resources strain political system and lead many to question traditional assumptions about fair distribution under democracy. Anti-democratic, regionally-based ideologies increasingly develop.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • INDONESIA

  • Decline in rice yields generates riots and revolutionary climate.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • IRAN

  • Drought magnifies dissatisfaction with Islamic regime. Counter-revolution develops, but is more radical leftist than pro-Western in orientation.

    • IRAQ

  • Drought prompts central government to limit supply of water to Shiite south, exacerbating religious-ethnic division.

    • IRELAND

    ISRAEL

    ITALY

  • Nativist backlash against African environmental refugees accompanied by incident of mass murder against Africans living in shantytown in Sicily. Africans and many Italians protest hostile climate.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow from the Tuscan coast.

    • JAMAICA

  • Massive Category 5 level hurricane hits Kingston and causes massive death toll. U.S. military provides massive relief.

    • JAPAN

    JORDAN

    KAZAKHSTAN

    KENYA

  • Fighting between Kikuyu and Maasai groups over water supplies triggers civil war and massive refugee flow.

    • NORTH KOREA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SOUTH KOREA

    KUWAIT

    KYRGYZSTAN

    LAOS

    LATVIA

    LEBANON

  • Water shortages in Beirut emerge despite conventional wisdom of sufficient resources. Religious cleavages stoked by accusations of unfair distribution.

    • LESOTHO

    LIBERIA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • LIBYA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • LIECHTENSTEIN

    LITHUANIA

    LUXEMBOURG

    MACEDONIA

    MADAGASCAR

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • MALAWI

  • Persistent drought and low agricultural yields eat at ethnic unity. Country begins to divide and prospect of ethnic conflict reasserts itself.

    • MALAYSIA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • MALI

    MALTA

  • Persistent drought and poor water quality leads to political agitation and unrest.

    • MARTINIQUE

    MAURITANIA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow, magnified by damage to fishing industry.

    • MAURITIUS

    MEXICO

  • Persistent drought in Chiapas fuels internal division. Anti-Zapatista paramilitary groups spark violence in protest of perceived poor support for agriculture and weak relations with the national government, which result in a lack of food aid.
  • Drought in Nouthern Mexico increases demand for emigration to the United States. American nativism restricts flow, and poor farmers begin to protest weak Mexican employment policies.

    • MOLDOVA

  • Food shortages because of erratic climatic conditions cause riots and refugee flow.

    • MONGOLIA

  • Drought makes Mongolia increasing dependent on support from neighbors. China and Russia fund rival political factions.

    • MONTENEGRO

    MONTSERRAT

    MOROCCO

  • African environmental refugee flow causes racist backlash. Attacks against refugees trying to reach Europe cause international scandal.
  • Persistent drought weakens hydropower production, causing internal instability.

    • MOZAMBIQUE

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • MYANMAR

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • NAMIBIA

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • NEPAL

    NETHERLANDS

  • Sea level rise and flooding force massive internal resettlement away from the Netherlands to neighboring countries in the EU.

    • NEW CALEDONIA

    NEW ZEALAND

    NICARAGUA

    NIGER

    NIGERIA

  • Environmental refugee flow to Lagos from other countries and regions of Nigeria overwhelms city government, resulting in gang control and chaos.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • NORWAY

    OMAN

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • PAKISTAN

  • Drought fuels opposition to regime by Pashtuns in South Waziristan.
  • Drought results in protests involving accusations of provincial preference in the distribution of water. Conflict between Punjab province and Sindh province, along with others, erupts.

    • PALAU

    PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES

  • Drought in the region results in Israel limiting supplies to Palestine. Major reinvigorated intifada explodes.

    • PANAMA

    PAPUA NEW GUINEA

    PARAGUAY

    PERU

  • Reduction of spawning areas hurts Peruvian fish catch. Forced changes in diet trigger unrest.
  • Water shortages and altered agricultural patterns encourage formation of new guerrilla movement protesting land distribution.

    • PHILIPPINES

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • POLAND

  • European Union economic threats toward Poland to reduce its coal emissions generate fears of EU political freeze.

    • PORTUGAL

    PUERTO RICO

    QATAR

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • REUNION

    ROMANIA

    RUSSIAN FEDERATION

  • Increased viability for agriculture in East causes new agricultural firms to establish large farms. Use of immigrant labor and perceived unfair government facilitation of land transfer cause rural protest.

    • RWANDA

  • Persistent drought exacerbates tensions between Hutus and Tutsi and reignites ethnic violence.

    • SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS

    SAINT LUCIA

    SAMOA

    SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE

    SAUDI ARABIA

  • Threats of high international carbon taxes cause uncertainty and internal conflict within Saudi royal family over response.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SENEGAL

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SERBIA

  • Contestation over water supplies and agricultural land leads to re-intensified guerilla war with Kosovo.

    • SIERRA LEONE

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SINGAPORE

    SLOVAKIA

    SLOVENIA

    SOLOMON ISLANDS

  • Sea level rise triggers massive refugee outflow.

    • SOMALIA

  • Drought fosters further public reliance on warlords and intensifies civil war.

    • SOUTH AFRICA

  • Increased desertification results in the poor relying on increasingly ad-hoc regional administrations. Perceived lack of central government attention leads to national division.

    • SOUTH GEORGIA, SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

    SPAIN

  • Nativist backlash against African environmental refugees triggers anti-immigration protests and hostile climate.

    • SRI LANKA

  • Government takes advantage of flooding in Jaffna by launching invasion of Tamil-held areas. Ill will permanently sets back reconciliation as insurgency continues.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SUDAN

  • Food shortages from drought and other effects of warming reignite North-South ethnic conflict and cause massive refugee flows.

    • SURINAME

  • Increasing malaria rates in Suriname hurt tourism. Public rages against Dutch policies and lack of support.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN

    SWAZILAND

  • Persistent drought causes textile investor pullout and government instability.

    • SWEDEN

  • In face of relatively improved climatic conditions, government abandons European Union in protest of policies that require Sweden to accept high levels of immigration from other states.

    • SWITZERLAND

    SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

  • Water shortages used to justify construction of nuclear power plants for claimed desalination purposes. Western countries and Israel threaten attacks over perceived advancement of nuclear weapons program.

    • TAIWAN

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • TAJIKISTAN

    TANZANIA

    THAILAND

  • Coastal erosion fuels Islamic insurgency in South with militants blaming central government for inaction.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow. Damage to water tables fuels movement.

    • TIMOR-LESTE

    TOGO

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • TONGA

    TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

    TUNISIA

  • Persistent desertification results in public dissatisfaction and protests over national water policies. Public opening sets stage for opposition movement.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow.

    • TURKEY

    TURKMENISTAN

    TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    UGANDA

  • Drought fuels clashes between Karimojong herders and government.

    • UKRAINE

    UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow. Tourism industry substantially hurt.

    • UNITED KINGDOM

  • Persistant migration and refugee flows into the UK cause nativist backlash and anti-refugee violence.

    • UNITED STATES

  • Massive flooding event devastates New York City, causing huge damage and chaos.
  • Massive Category 5 level hurricane strikes Miami and causes massive devastation. Looting breaks out and U.S. military intervenes.
  • Popular perceptions of international chaos fuel proliferation of cults and increasingly extreme forms of evangelical Christianity. Apocalyptic rhetoric becomes mainstream enough to alter American politics and foreign policy.
  • Eco-terrorist groups angered by impacts of warming launch bomb attack against major oil refinery.
  • Sea level rise and flooding cause chaotic refugee flow from eastern North Carolina and Chesapeake Bay.

    • URUGUAY

  • Sea level rise in Rio de la Plata triggers massive erosion, devastating tourist industry in Uruguay and causing political unrest.

    • UZBEKISTAN

    VANUATU

    VENEZUELA

  • Radical leftist government establishes fund to supply nations victimized by natural disasters with free fuel. Western nations criticize foreign policy based on gifts of fossil fuels; Venezuela blames the West for generating the original problem.

    • VIETNAM

  • Sea level rise and flooding cause massive refugee flow from coastal region. Coast significantly altered.

    • VIRGIN ISLANDS, BRITISH

    WESTERN SAHARA

    YEMEN

  • Conflict between tribes involves contestation over water resources, sparking civil war.

    • ZAMBIA

    ZIMBABWE

    Multiple country scenarios:

  • RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Russia makes claims on an increasingly navigable Arctic region and begins to build military bases on contested land.
  • CANADA: Despite some friction with the U.S. over the reach of Canadian claims, Canada asks United States to oppose Russian actions in the Arctic.
  • UNITED STATES: The U.S. sends carrier forces to the Arctic to signal opposition to Russian moves, generating substantial military tension and risking miscalculation and war.

  • CHINA: China reacts to water shortages and glacial melt by attempting to control supply and block water flow into India.
  • INDIA: Failure to cooperate with China over water leads to increasingly antagonistic relationship, risking border war over glacial regions.

  • TAIWAN: Major typhoon causes shock to military readiness.
  • CHINA: Takes advantage of weakened Taiwan by launching invasion. Moves before foreign relief forces can arrive.

  • UNITED STATES: Water shortages encourage the United States to siphon water from the Great Lakes.
  • CANADA: Frustration over U.S. use of Great Lakes water burdens important trading relationship and complicates other bilateral water issues.

  • GUATEMALA: Drought and food shortages cause persistent refugee and immigration flow over border with Mexico.
  • MEXICO: Mexico attempts to guard and block southern border, creating increasingly strained relationship with Guatemala and other Central American states.

  • SINGAPORE: Increasing periodic water cut-offs by Malaysia result in dispute over supplies. Singapore tries to bribe Malaysian government, but Malay nationalism causes difficult negotiations. Some factions increasingly argue that Singapore should secure water supplies militarily, or ally with another revisionist power in the region like China.
  • MALAYSIA: Water shortages in Malaysia make many citizens resentful of supplying Singapore. Government breaks previous agreements with Singapore, generating immediate tensions. Full-scale conflict not inconceivable.

  • SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Syria initiates nuclear weapons program after near war with Turkey over water resources. Public attributes lack of water for irrigation to Turkish dam projects.
  • TURKEY: Tensions with Syria over water result in military movement to border and possible conflict.

  • MALI: Persistent drought causes tension between Taureg nomads and black farmers. Foreign Islamic radicals take advantage of situation by operating in increasingly ungovernable areas.
  • UNITED STATES: U.S. intervenes militarily in Mali, with the support of regional governments, to halt perceived terrorist activity.

  • EGYPT: Persistent instability in Sudan causes Egyptian invasion and installation of puppet government. Egypt worries about refugee flows and loss of influence over the Nile.
  • SUDAN: Various Sudanese rebel groups challenge control of country. Chaos generates free-for-all on use of the Nile.

  • MAURITANIA: Drought triggers large migration to Senegal.
  • SENEGAL: Senegalese backlash and launch violent riots against Mauritanian migrants.

  • KYRGYZSTAN: Water shortages result in restrictions on supply of Chu and Talas rivers to Kazakhstan. Major regional conflict erupts.
  • KAZAKHSTAN: Kazakhstan threatens Kyrgyzstan over water supply. Contributes to tensions that eventually trigger conflict.

  • GUINEA-BISSAU: Food shortages and conflict trigger refugee flow of Senegalese into North. This increases tension with Senegal and causes political and environmental strain in Guinea-Bissau.
  • SENEGAL: Food shortages due to drought fuel separatist conflict in Casamance.

  • ANGOLA: Low water supplies focus attention on Namibian diversion of Okavango basin to its capital Windhoek. Angolan paramilitary forces begin incursions into Northern Nambia.
  • NAMIBIA: Namibia appeals to South Africa and the United States to support combat against Angolan-sponsored forces.

  • NIGER: Drought fuels increasing Islamic radicalism. Government increasingly fails to cooperate with Benin over river management.
  • BENIN: Supported by a West anxious over Islamic radicalism in Niger, Benin attacks Niger to gain control of water resources to support cotton industry.